MyDD :: Nader will help democrats

Nader will help democrats

by thief, Mon Apr 26, 2004 at 03:25:21 PM EST

One of the bedrock debates of mainstream politics questions is whether the country is drifting right or left.

If you look at the evidence of the number of safe seats in the House, at increasing percentages of registered Republicans vs. Democrats, or at who controls all three branches of the federal goverment, then you have evidence of the rightward drift.

If you look at the increasing percentage of people who support a woman's right to choose, affirmative action, or civil unions; and you watch the demographic shifts that should lead to more Democratic support, then you may see the opposite.

The swing voter, the swing states, the undecideds are still critical in elections. Which direction the political momemtum is heading is incredibly important.

There is no stronger leftward force now that disgust for Bush. This disgust is uniting the Democratic party, but it's also leading independents our way.

What are the voices now that feed our disgust with Bush, that give us the facts we need to convince others? They are Richard Clarke's and Paul O'Neil's. We latch onto McCain's criticism and Chuch Hagel's because our complaint are shown to be non-partisan, and because the mainstream media will cover their criticism, but not Daschle's or Pelosi's.

We are relying on conservative's and hawks to supply many of the details of our criticism of Bush.

Kerry seems forced to play centrist on Iraq, on on tax policy. Where is the national voice that speaks from the left? It's Nader. He's the only one who can talk about leaving Iraq. Kucinich barely gets mentioned in the blogs these days, let alone the newspapers.

We need a national voice on the left broaching the positions that we may have to take when and if Bush can be escorted out the door. Nader, by default, is that voice.

This is a good thing, as long as he drops out in October and endorses Kerry.

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And if he doesn't? (none / 0)

If he decides instead to feed his massive ego at the expense of the nation, do we get to gang up on him and repeatedly kick him in the balls and ask him how much he saved thanks to the Bush tax cuts?

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. T. S. Eliot

by Incertus on Mon Apr 26, 2004 at 07:51:09 PM EST

ball kicking (none / 0)

"If he decides instead to feed his massive ego at the expense of the nation, do we get to gang up on him and repeatedly kick him in the balls and ask him how much he saved thanks to the Bush tax cuts?"

Yes

This administration sucks.

by thief on Tue Apr 27, 2004 at 11:26:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

not going to drop out (none / 0)

No, I don't see it happening. Though reports show that Nader is having trouble getting on the ballot in Texas...

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Apr 26, 2004 at 10:36:56 PM EST

Kerry's Choice not Naders (none / 0)

Nader will not drop out, but if Kerry wants the left Nader vote it is there for his taking - he just needs to embrace much of the agenda and tone (unlike Gore he ran from his environmental background).

by KenD on Tue Apr 27, 2004 at 09:03:57 AM EST

Choosing the left (none / 0)

Yep, totally agree.

I don't know how he's going to do it though. The point of my post is that most of the strong (ie. covered by the media) anti-Bush voices right now are coming from the right. If no one speaks for the left, and none of the left's idea are part of the 'public discussion', then Kerry may end up triangulated into a position between McCain and Bush.

And that's not good.

This administration sucks.

by thief on Tue Apr 27, 2004 at 11:38:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nader may hurt. (none / 0)

Look at this poll released today in Pennsylvania ... 42% Bush, 42% Kerry, 5% Nader.

As Arrianna Huffington said on TV the other day, "When your house is on fire, it's not the time to think about re-modeling." Our house is on fire, we must vote for Kerry and not Nader.

by Anonymous Citizen on Tue Apr 27, 2004 at 08:17:47 PM EST

If he doesn't drop, he really hurts (none / 0)

From the Things I've Seen poll of polls:

Where do Nader's 3.9% come from?

2.8% Kerry
0.9% Bush
0.2% Other

In other words, according to the polls, Nader isn't bringing anyone from "don't know" or "won't vote"...

Why not read Things I've Seen

by tis on Tue Apr 27, 2004 at 10:42:40 PM EST

Don't worry...Nader will help Kerry (none / 0)

The Things I've Seen poll analysis isn't very useful, especially this far out of the election. If you historically look at Nader's impact, most prominently in 2000, you don't find any trend between the Democratic nominee's poll numbers and Naders.

I sat in on a campaign strategy session with Nader here in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago. It's clear to me that he has a significantly different constituency than in 2000. The majority of the audience, and nearly all of his campaign staff, hail from the reform party and/or are individuals with mixed conservative leanings. I mean, the campaign is trying to gather signatures at gun shows for gods sakes--not the prime habitat of lefties.

And while Nader touched on similar topics as back in 2000, he did so in a significantly different way. He argued issues from a different, more conservative angle than he did when he ran as a Green. When asked about the spoiler charge, he acknowledged that he "won't get a single vote from a Democrat." While that's an exaggeration, I do think that the vast majority of Democrats who voted for Nader will not be voting for him a second time.

Nader's second front against Bush is critical. John Kerry has two jobs to do: convince voters that (1) Bush shouldn't be in office and (2) Kerry is an acceptable alternative. So far, Kerry's failing to do either. Nader's harsh criticism of Bush's policies--saying things that Kerry refuses to--is important. It also allows Kerry to continue to push his DLC-driven campaign, appearing to be a middle voice between Nader and Bush.

Since Nader will once again have a strong following on campuses, he'll be energizing plenty of new voters. And, just like what happened in 2000, about half of them will succumb to the lesser-of-two-evils argument and vote for the Democratic nominee.

What Kerry has to worry about far more than Nader's marginal democratic following is being sure that registered Democrats don't vote for Bush. If the 12% of Democrats that voted for Bush in 2000 do so again, Kerry is toast. Democrats should be focusing their energies on those folks, not Nader.

by zaea on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 02:27:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reform elements/12% (none / 0)

If Nader is really appealing to lost in the wilderness Reform party types, he might actually do better than 2000, at least in MN. After Buchanan's putsch of the Reform party, they haven't had a lot of national success or recognition. If Jesse Ventura were to endorse Nader/sign on as VP, then this new direction might gain momentum. (Two big ifs)

The Greens and Ventura Independents in MN declined to cooperate for the 2002 elections. If they had, both parties would look more fearsome at the state and national level.

What some observers miss when analyzing MN recent swing status is that the state isn't simply more Republican, but that most support for the Reform/Indepedence party came at the expense of the Democratic party. Ventura won by being a celebrity, but also by appealing to that variable percentage of Democrats who trend conservative/indepedent/anti-establishment. In the 2002 MN governor's race, the combined Democrat, Green and Independence party vote outstripped the Republican vote by over 10%, but there are presently no state Democrats who can unite all of that vote, as they did in the past.

I think you're correct that the 12% is the crucial block to recapture.

Thanks for the observations. They are actually a bit more unsettling than the thought of Nader running as an independent Green.

This administration sucks.

by thief on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 06:04:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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